Well, here's another thing:

Jayne got shot in the same leg--IN THE SAME spot--by the Reavers in the BDM as he did by the stray bullet in "The Train Job".

And...Simon mentions sooooo casually being a "criminal mastermind" and reeeeeeaaaaaallllly comes up with that plan for "Ariel" too easily (IMHO). After seeing BDM, his naughtiness seem more plausible.